Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-13 36.294748 43.068300 50.553720 59.411307 69.576720 80.847700 94.258701
2024-10-20 28.791998 38.385553 50.045927 65.131792 83.988682 106.626630 135.688239
2024-10-27 20.949225 30.767481 43.666790 61.585944 85.521715 116.045155 157.506300
2024-11-03 17.688518 28.098243 42.652864 64.030428 94.080037 134.186314 190.998464
2024-11-10 15.595997 26.531164 42.664701 67.510038 103.955491 154.459639 228.487094
2024-11-17 13.813076 25.033198 42.420748 70.363651 112.935658 173.907148 265.970099
2024-11-24 11.819540 22.810125 40.685078 70.624288 117.923419 187.814332 296.326666
2024-12-01 9.768615 20.102631 37.751315 68.556711 118.996033 195.831554 318.381582
2024-12-08 8.488899 18.518921 36.418114 68.826826 123.583599 209.233644 349.051094
2024-12-15 7.527450 17.351501 35.618776 69.833416 129.325653 224.643905 383.530605
2024-12-22 5.885240 14.530249 31.441302 64.450130 123.866743 221.832179 389.227365
2024-12-29 5.319049 13.830487 31.122812 65.919416 130.157143 238.292686 426.386164
2025-01-05 4.371265 12.219498 29.021799 64.268968 131.601060 248.144563 455.729758
2025-01-12 4.238818 12.486556 30.818819 70.424418 147.915220 284.660251 532.247793
2025-01-19 3.324290 10.623329 27.809062 66.633929 145.377380 288.390855 553.673631
2025-01-26 3.011307 10.221862 27.930724 69.250215 155.234817 314.618603 615.349941
2025-02-02 2.802099 10.051345 28.548073 72.972319 167.552160 346.052374 687.928620
2025-02-09 2.574683 9.770153 28.851196 76.023455 178.753536 376.105926 759.675113
2025-02-16 2.236914 9.061213 27.976823 76.302077 184.261702 395.818946 813.766918
2025-02-23 1.843457 8.049874 26.139684 74.091579 184.298414 405.043404 849.029399
2025-03-02 1.606507 7.490097 25.397625 74.380400 189.681473 424.906988 905.133268
2025-03-09 1.427727 7.081613 25.000113 75.456607 196.860582 448.713276 969.894468
2025-03-16 1.077577 5.881234 22.072189 69.699301 188.101950 439.878465 971.381086